The School of Economics invites you to an AERE Reading Group seminar by Rohan Nelson (Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics).

Modernising ABARES forecasting services for agriculture

Abstract

Through the BAE, ABARE and now ABARES, the Australian government has provided commodity market forecasts for Australia’s agricultural sector since 1945. Despite dramatic changes in our operating environment, the coverage and scope of ABARES commodity forecasts has – until recently – changed little since the early 1980s.

ABARES team of forecasters is part way through a 5 year project to modernise the forecasting services we provide for agriculture. This has meant reviewing our role as a public sector forecaster in globalised world, and defining what world-class public sector forecasting services look like with the reduced resources available in a post-agrarian economy.

In this presentation I’ll open up the bonnet on ABARES agricultural forecasting system to provide University of Sydney colleagues with some insights into the changes we’re making in how we operate and what we produce. I’ll talk you through how we’re addressing uncomfortable questions like “why are we still doing it?”, “who are we doing it for?” and “how should we be doing it?”. I’ll also talk about the importance of capacity building to us and our need to work closely with you as educators to nurture a pipeline of graduate agricultural economists.