School of Economics

  Invites you to a

Econometrics seminar presented by

Dick Startz

(University of California – Santa Barbara)

Recessions, Recoveries, and Leverage

Wednesday 6 September 2023

2.00pm – 3.30pm

 Level 6 Seminar Room (650)

A02 Social Sciences Building
Camperdown Campus

The University of Sydney NSW 2006

  When leverage is low, recoveries from recessions are likely to eventually return the economy to its pre-recession growth path. When leverage is high, recoveries are likely to leave the economy below its pre-recession growth path. In other words, low-leverage recessions are likely to be U-shaped while high-leverage recessions are likely to be L-shaped. The increase in leverage over the post-War period that recent recessions are much more likely to be L-shaped. In particular, there is strong evidence that the Great Recession was L-shaped. We find similar effects of leverage for a number of other countries, but not all.

For further information contact: Econometrics seminar series coordinator Dr Ye Lu (ye.lu1@sydney.edu.au)

For all upcoming seminars in School of Economics see Our events and Calendar