The School of Economics invites you to an Experimental seminar presented by Aurelien Baillon (Erasmus University Rotterdam).

Leveraging Probability Distortion to Target Prevention? Evidence from a Lottery
Experiment on Cardiovascular Risk

Co-authors: 

Joseph Capuno, Aleli Kraft, Jenny Kudymowa, and Owen O’Donnell

Abstract

Targeting is critical to making disease prevention programs cost-effective. We use a randomized experiment in the Philippines to test whether a lottery incentive for a medical check-up succeeds in targeting those who would otherwise underinvest in prevention because they distort probabilities. A lottery is expected to appeal more to those who display inverse S-shaped probability distortion, which is also a characteristic that discourages prevention of intermediate risks. We find that probability distortion partly explains underprevention at baseline. However, contrary to expectations, we do not find evidence that the lottery incentive is particularly effective in targeting individuals inclined to distort probabilities.