School Seminar | A Choice-Based Approach to the Measurement of Inflation Expectations by Stefan Trautmann | Heidelberg University – School of Economics School Seminar | A Choice-Based Approach to the Measurement of Inflation Expectations by Stefan Trautmann | Heidelberg University – School of Economics

School Seminar | A Choice-Based Approach to the Measurement of Inflation Expectations by Stefan Trautmann | Heidelberg University

 

School of Economics

 

Invites you to a

School seminar presented by

Stefan Trautmann

(Heidelberg University)

 

A Choice-Based Approach
to the Measurement of Inflation Expectations

 

Co-authors:

Olga Goldfayn-Frank – Deutsche Bundesbank
Pascal Kieren – Heidelberg University

Thursday 14 March 2024

11.00am – 12.30pm

 

Seminar Room 650
A02 Social Sciences Building

Camperdown Campus
The University of Sydney NSW 2006

 

In macroeconomic surveys, inflation expectations are commonly elicited via density forecasts in which respondents assign probabilities to pre-specified ranges in inflation. This question format is increasingly subject to criticism. In this study, we propose a new method to elicit inflation expectations which is based on prior decision theoretic research. We demonstrate that it leads to well-defined expectations with central tendencies close to the corresponding point forecasts and to lower forecast uncertainty than density forecasts. In contrast to currently employed methods, the approach is robust to differences in the state of the economy and thus allows comparisons across time and across countries. Additionally, the method is not very time consuming and portable in the sense that it can be applied to different macroeconomic measures.

For further information contact: School seminar series coordinators
Arezou Zaresani (arezou.zaresani@sydney.edu.au)

& Brendan Beare (brendan.beare@sydney.edu.au)

For all upcoming seminars in School of Economics see Our events and Calendar

 

 

 

Date

Mar 14 2024
Expired!

Time

11:00 am - 12:30 pm

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