Invites you to a

School seminar presented by

Simon Grant

(Australian National University)

The Sure-Thing Principle and the Optimality of Consistent Plans 

Co-authors:

Berend Roorda (University of Twente)

Jingni Yang (Australian National University)

Thursday 3 November

11.00am – 12.30pm

Via Zoom: Meeting Link

Abstract: We consider a decision-maker’s preferences over a class of decision trees involving the selection of an act from a menu conditional on receipt of a signal. Given the decision maker’s contingent choices in each tree maximize her (potentially non-consequentialist) conditional preferences, we show every (dynamically) consistent plan will be (ex ante) optimal with respect to her (static) preferences over acts, if and only if those preferences exhibit a property introduced by Grant et al (2000) as a way to operationalize Savage’s (1954) extralogical Sure-Thing Principle.

For further information contact: School seminar series coordinators Dr Ye Lu (ye.lu1@sydney.edu.au) & Dr Alastair Fraser (alastair.fraser@sydney.edu.au)

For all upcoming seminars in School of Economics see Our events and Calendar